CB’s Take: Without a discount, Cards may be best to pass on Heyward deal

 By Chris Brown – STL Baseball Today

As reported Sunday night by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, there have “not been substantive talks” between the Cardinals and Jason Heyward’s representation regarding a contract extension, and it doesn’t appear there will be before the conclusion of of this season. From my article on STLBaseballToday.com:

“There have not been substantive talks about an extension” and “no pressure from either side to hasten a deal even if it means seeing him reach the open market in November,” Goold wrote.

That’s something Heyward said he’s completely on board with:

“At this point, I think both sides are OK with that, OK with where things are right now.  Both sides want to make sure everybody is happy. That’s really what they’ve been asking me about the whole time. ‘Hey, you like it here? Hey, you comfortable?’ They want to make sure I feel at home, make sure I can be myself, and that’s been their focus. They’ve allowed me the time to fit in. That has meant a lot.”

One of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, Heyward has shown the offensive upside he possesses this season. With many seasons of prime production still likely in the years to come, he’s undoubtedly in line for a big payday. The two sides appear to be willing to wait until the offseason to examine the market before making a decision.

The Cardinals would receive draft pick compensation if Heyward turns down a qualifying offer to sign elsewhere in the offseason.

While most Cardinals fans would agree that it would be great to see Jason Heyward patrolling right field again in 2016, the real question is: At what cost?

Heyward doesn’t amaze with the bat. He’s not going to be the power threat many hoped he would be when he tallied 27 home runs with the Braves in 2012. But he’s proven to be a true threat on the basepaths, swiping 18 bags in 20 attempts.

His greatest asset is the ability to take away hits and runs in the field. According to FanGraphs, Heyward has already saved 13 runs in right field this season, which has greatly contributed to his team-leading 3.75 WAR (wins above replacement). For a team which relies so heavily on it’s pitching, Heyward has proved to be a wonderful asset.

But, we must turn back to the cost question. MLBTradeRumors.com estimates that Heyward could potentially land an eight-year deal worth more than $180 million, which would easily be the most expensive contract in Cardinals history, behind Matt Holliday’s seven-year deal worth $120 million guaranteed.

Jason Heyward is a great player. But is he really worth the cost of an elite one? – maybe if the team was in a more pressing situation, like they were prior to this season, prompting them to make the trade with Atlanta.

After Oscar Taveras’ tragic death, the team had a glaring hole in right field. They didn’t yet know what they had in Randal Grichuk, and didn’t feel Stephen Piscotty was ready for the big-leagues.

Looking ahead, the departure of Heyward would not leave the team in another similar situation. Matt Holliday will be back to handle left field, and Randal Grichuk has proven he can be an impact everyday player in the majors. It’s too soon to make any crazy declaration, but fellow rookie Stephen Piscotty seems to also be headed in a similar route.

And let’s not forget that Brandon Moss could be an outfield option, assuming Matt Adams returns to a starting role at first base. Of course, there’s also Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos in the mix as well.

Even without Heyward, the Cardinals outfield situation would be a crowded one headed into next season. The organization’s opinion on whether Stephen Piscotty is capable of an everyday role in the outfield will certainly factor into their decision on how far they’d be willing to go to keep Jason Heyward in St. Louis.

Is the drop off between Heyward and the cost-controlled young players really so great that the Cardinals would choose to use the $150 million plus it would take to keep Heyward here for that rather than a different purpose? That’s only part of a very complicated equation that GM John Mozeliak will have to consider this upcoming offseason.

–CB

Comments are closed.